By Danny Jasper, Senior Vice President, Capital Markets, Castle & Cooke Mortgage, LLC
Last week was quite the roller coaster ride. Volatility was unprecedented as investors digested data spanning from the May non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, Greek debt talks and European inflation reports. The 10-year yield fluctuated greatly, and by close of business Friday, it increased 29 basis points to 2.4%.
As is common the week after the NFP report, this week is relatively light on data, as the highlight is Thursday’s Retail Sales report for May. With U.S. consumers showing a focus on saving versus spending over the last few reports (the April Retail Sales report came in very disappointing at 0.0% increase to the headline number), economists are speculating that we started to see families spend more in May. Surveys are calling for a +1.2% increase on the headline number and a +0.5% gain, excluding cars and gas.
Other data reports to look out for this week include wholesale inventories and trade sales for April tomorrow, import prices Thursday and PPI and consumer confidence reports on Friday.
On Monday, the DJIA is down 18 to 17,831, and the S&P is down 3 to 2,089. The 10-year yield has rallied back a bit this morning after closing at the highest level since October of last year and currently sits at 2.379%. Rates are better by approximately 0.25 in price versus Friday morning depending on rate and product.
This week’s economic calendar is as follows (courtesy of the FNMA trading desk):
|06/09/15 09:00||NFIB Small Business Optimism||May||97.2||—||96.9|
|06/09/15 10:00||Wholesale Inventories MoM||Apr||0.20%||—||0.10%|
|06/09/15 10:00||Wholesale Trade Sales MoM||Apr||0.60%||—||-0.20%|
|06/09/15 10:00||JOLTS Job Openings||Apr||—||—||4994|
|06/10/15 07:00||MBA Mortgage Applications||5-Jun||—||—||-7.60%|
|06/10/15 14:00||Monthly Budget Statement||May||-$97.5B||—||—|
|06/11/15 08:30||Retail Sales Advance MoM||May||1.20%||—||0.00%|
|06/11/15 08:30||Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM||May||0.80%||—||0.10%|
|06/11/15 08:30||Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas||May||0.50%||—||0.20%|
|06/11/15 08:30||Retail Sales Control Group||May||0.50%||—||0.00%|
|06/11/15 08:30||Import Price Index MoM||May||0.90%||—||-0.30%|
|06/11/15 08:30||Initial Jobless Claims||6-Jun||277K||—||276K|
|06/11/15 08:30||Import Price Index YoY||May||-10.00%||—||-10.70%|
|06/11/15 08:30||Continuing Claims||30-May||2180K||—||2196K|
|06/11/15 08:45||Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey|
|06/11/15 09:45||Bloomberg Consumer Comfort||7-Jun||—||—||40.5|
|06/11/15 10:00||Business Inventories||Apr||0.20%||—||0.10%|
|06/11/15 12:00||Household Change in Net Worth||1Q||—||—||$1517B|
|06/12/15 08:30||PPI Final Demand MoM||May||0.40%||—||-0.40%|
|06/12/15 08:30||PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM||May||0.10%||—||-0.20%|
|06/12/15 08:30||PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM||May||0.10%||—||0.10%|
|06/12/15 08:30||PPI Final Demand YoY||May||-1.10%||—||-1.30%|
|06/12/15 08:30||PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY||May||0.70%||—||0.80%|